Donald Trump’s presidency and its implications for India

The assumption of office by US president-elect Donald Trump on Friday and his penchant for pursuing a disruptive agenda has aroused both interest and concern globally. Some of the more recent Trump tweets that have elicited sharp responses include his characterization of NATO as ‘obsolete’ and the candid opinion he has voiced apropos German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s refugee policy, which he described as a “catastrophic mistake.”

Earlier there was a revisionist reference to the sanctity of the ‘one China’ policy much to Beijing’s ire and in an extraordinary development, some sections of the official media in China even referred to the possibility of a nuclear war! The Trump phase of US politics promises to be turbulent globally and bilaterally .

India, like other major powers, will have to carefully monitor how the Obama legacy morphs into the Trump inheritance and the degree to which there will be continuity in past policies and where the reset button is likely to be hit.

In the absence of a cogent policy document, one can outline broad and likely Trump policy indicators and their relevance for India. The three levels at which the impact of the Trump presidency can be reviewed are bilateral, regional and global.

At the bilateral level, some of the senior members of the Trump team who are awaiting confirmation have indicated that India will continue to be seen as a significant strategic partner of the US. The introduction of an India-specific law during the last lap of the Obama administration that enables greater defence cooperation will be nurtured, they have said.

There is anxiety that the Trump policy apropos H1-B visas for all foreign citizens seeking employment in the US will adversely impact Indian information technology professionals. The fine print of this policy change will be awaited with both anxiety and interest globally given the magnet that the world’s largest economy is for employment.

The Trump policy towards China and Russia has global strategic implications with considerable relevance for India. The quadrangular relationship between Washington, Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi went through an innovative trapeze during the Cold War. Despite the zero-sum binary of the US versus the former USSR and the ‘containment of communism’, the US and China were able to forge a strategic relationship, the communist identity of Beijing notwithstanding; and a non-aligned India could tango with the former USSR to protect its core interests.